FP staffJuly 15, 2021 12:52:43 IST
A new study led by members of the University of Hawaii’s NASA Surface Transformation Team shows that tides are more likely to exceed known flood thresholds in the United States. In a warning, the study says that by the mid-2030s, every U.S. coast will have rapidly rising tidal floods as the lunar cycle reinforces sea level rise caused by climate change.
What are high tides?
Tidal floods – floods that lead to public nuisances such as road closures – are becoming more common as coastal sea levels rise. As relative sea levels rise, causing floods in coastal areas no longer requires a severe storm or hurricane. Floods now occur at high tide in many places due to climate-related sea level rise, land subsidence, and the removal of natural barriers.
High tide floods – also known as adverse floods or floods on sunny days – are already a familiar problem in many U.S. coastal cities in the Atlantic and Gulf. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported a total of more than 600 such floods in 2019.
According to NOAA, the effects of sea level rise on most of the continental coast of the United States are expected to be more significant and much more severe in the coming decades, probably more than any other factor related to climate change. Any acceleration in sea level rise that is projected to occur in this century will further increase the effects of tidal floods over time and reduce the time between flood events.
How things can change in the mid-2030s
According to the first study, the stabilization of rising sea levels in the lunar cycle from the mid-2030s will cause coastal cities across the United States to begin a dramatic increase in the number of floods in a decade. and the astronomical causes of floods.
The study further says that floods sometimes occur in clusters of a month or longer, depending on the location of the moon, earth and sun. When the moon and the earth are lined up with each other and the sun in a certain way, the resulting gravity and the corresponding response of the ocean can leave the townspeople to survive the floods daily or twice.
“Shallow areas near sea level are increasingly at risk and suffering from increased flooding, and it’s only getting worse,” the study quoted NASA chief Bill Nelson as saying.
“The combination of lunar gravity, sea level rise and climate change will further exacerbate coastal floods on our coasts and around the world. NASA’s Sea Level Change Team provides important information to help us plan, protect and prevent environmental damage and human livelihoods caused by floods.”
“The impact that has accumulated over time has an impact,” says Phil Thompson, an assistant professor at the University of Hawaii and lead author of the new study, published this month Natural climate change.
Although tidal floods contain a small amount of water compared to hurricanes, it cannot be ignored, as 10-15 floods a month affect businesses and health.
Despite the fact that the moon is now in the tidal-strengthening part of its cycle, on most U.S. coasts, sea levels have not risen so much that even with this lunar aid, high tides cause regular flooding. I’m afraid it’s a completely different story next time the cycle comes to the tide again in the mid-2030s.
It is worrying that the number of floods is increasing on almost every coast of the US continent, Hawaii and Guam. Perhaps the far north coasts, including Alaska, will be spared for another decade or longer.
What is the Moon Swinging?
NASA calling the moon “waving” is a change in the business cycle of the moon, which could lead to coastal flooding in the 2030s. It was first reported in 1728 and occurs every 18.6 years. This slow variation will either suppress or strengthen our planet’s tide.
“In half of the 18.6-year period of the moon, the country’s regular daily tides are suppressed: tides are lower than normal and low tides are higher than normal.” NASA said.
“In the second half of the cycle, the tide is getting stronger: high tides are rising and low tides are falling. Global sea level rise is pushing tides in one direction only – higher.
When half of the 18.6-year cycle of the moon suppresses the earth’s regular daily tides: the tides are lower than normal and the tides higher than normal, in the second half of the cycle the tides become stronger: the tides rise, and the tides fall.
Global sea level rise is pushing the tides in only one direction – higher. So half of the 18, 6-year lunar cycle resists the effects of sea level rise at high tide and the other half increases the effect, the study says.
What is the research methodology?
The researchers came to the conclusion by studying 89 tidal dimensions in all U.S. coastal states and regions except Alaska.
The group created a new statistical framework that mapped NOAA’s widely used sea level rise scenarios and flood thresholds, how many times these thresholds were exceeded each year, astronomical periods, and statistical representations of other processes, such as the El Niño events. known to affect tides, a NASA report found. They predicted results until 2080.